Observations & Notes

Khan Academy has a bunch of interesting videos explaining topics related to finance & capital markets @https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/core-finance. Probably worth checking those out.

The following are some of the consequences of inflation on a very high level.

  • Loss of Purchasing Power: an increase in prices imply reduced purchasing power of the currency. As prices rise, each monetary unit buys fewer goods and services as prices rise. Increase in the price levels erode the real value of money. Individuals or institutions with cash savings will suffer with the price inflation. High inflation may reduce the incentive to save.

  • Wealth Redistribution: The effect of inflation is not distributed evenly in the economy. It redistributes income from people on fixed incomes to people on variable income that rises with inflation. Few people benefit from inflation such as asset price inflation – eg., value or price of a physical asset, a property, going up. At the same time, few people who seek to acquire the physical asset will need to pay more for the same property. In US, the Fed induced Quantitative Easing (QE) programs created massive asset price inflation in financial markets and real estate in recent years. It is not so surprising to hear chatter about “income inequality” these days.

    Another example is the impact of inflation on lenders and borrowers. Unexpected inflation usually hurts lenders and helps borrowers as lenders receive paid back money that is worth less than what they lent out while borrowers will be paying back loans that are worth less than they were at the time of borrowing. This is one of the reasons Wall Street is more concerned about inflation than the individual with average standard of living.


  • Uncertainty and Confusion: when inflation is high, people are uncertain what to spend their money on. Prolonged period of high inflation discourage businesses from investing because they are uncertain about future profits and costs. During inflationary periods, investors may not be interested in buying debt instruments issued by a country such as bonds as they are denominated in the currency that is being devalued due to the inflation. This uncertainty and confusion can lead to stalled or lower rates of economic growth over the long term.

  • Decline in Global Competitiveness: increased production costs due to inflation make exports cost more abroad causing a drop in demand for exported goods. That in turn can lead to a decrease in demand for the currency, and initiate ripple effects in economy and monetory policy to devalue the underlying currency.

    While devaluation may restore competitiveness – hence exports, it imports inflation by making the import costs rise in proportion. Rising exports combined with expensive imports can cause consumers and firms to purchase domestic goods driving the aggregate demand to increase triggering demand pull inflation. Also with devalued currency, businesses are less motivated to cut unnecessary costs.

  • Boom-Bust Cycles: boom and bust business cycle involve a rapid economic growth on the heels of high inflation followed by a period of economic contraction or recession.

    Boom cycles are usually triggered by loose monetary and fiscal policies with cheap credit and ample money supply. This leads to a rapid rise in economic growth mainly due to higher consumer spending coupled with lower savings pushing aggregate demand upwards consequently causing inflation in all kinds of asset classes. However this kind of rapid boom is unsustainable. Furthermore decline in savings ratio could create an unstable economy. As consumers and lenders start reducing the debt and start saving, the deleveraging process can lead to a slowdown in economic growth which can turn into recession.

  • Bracket Creep and Fiscal Drag: growth in nominal earnings due to inflation may push or drag more tax payers into higher tax brackets resulting in higher income taxes at the expense of minimal or no real increase in purchasing power. Many tax systems are not adjusted for inflation, and income tax codes typically take a longer time to change. As a result, government’s tax revenue rises without explicitly raising tax rates. However with slow government action or unchanged tax policies, people pay higher average and marginal tax rates over time consequently leading to deflationary pressure or drag on the economy due to the lack of demand for goods and services.

  • Menu Costs: when inflation is high, prices frequently change prompting firms and businesses to update price catalogs at the same pace. These adjustments require both time and money. The cost resulting from changing the prices is usually referred as menu costs. Modern technology may help reduce the menu costs, but still it is a cost and inconvenience that is a side effect of high inflation.

  • Opportunity cost of time and energy that individuals spend trying to counteract the effects of high inflation such as searching for good prices, savers holding less cash to keep much of their money in interest bearing accounts and/or to invest in different asset classes with lower levels of inflation etc., This type of cost was historically referred as Shoe Leather Cost.

  • Shortage in Goods: when prices go up too frequently, consumers will buy and hoard durable, non-perishable commodities and other goods including food items to avoid the losses expected from further decline in purchasing power of money, creating shortages of the goods.

    As of this writing, Venezuela’s annual inflation rate is at more than 60%, and long lines at grocery stores is a common sight due to the shortage of food and other supplies.

  • Social Unrest and Revolutions: Inflation can lead to massive demonstrations and revolutions. In recent history, food price inflation caused Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions in year 2011.

  • Hyperinflation: under extreme circumstances, if inflation becomes too high, people may curtail the use of their currency. It can lead to an acceleration in the inflation rate, referred as hyperinflation, which interferes with the normal workings of the economy. Ultimately the nation experiencing hyperinflation may abandon its currency as witnessed by the abandonment of Zimbabwean Dollar by Zimbabwe in year 2009.

Source & References:
Various www sources including investopedia, wikipedia, economicshelp.org

Image courtesy: unknown source on www

[Economics] Inflation


Inflation is the persistent rise in the prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time, leading to a reduction in the purchasing power as each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services.

Price inflation is measured by the inflation rate, the percentage change of prices calculated on a monthly or annual basis in a price index. Around the world, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most commonly used index to calculate the inflation rate, which measures the price of a representative selection of goods and services for a typical consumer. For example, if the inflation rate is measured at 5%, a loaf of bread that costs $1 today will cost $1.05 in a year.

What causes inflation?

There are at least three theories that are generally accepted.

  1. In a booming economy, strong consumer demand for goods and services may outweigh the aggregate supply and cause the price levels to rise. In other words, if demand is growing faster than supply, prices will increase. This is often referred as Demand-Pull Inflation, a term mostly associated with Keynesian economics.

    Most modern asset bubbles including the U.S. housing bubble which peaked in 2006 fall into this category. The increase in the value of Gold in the aftermath of 2008 financial crisis is another example.

  2. An increase in prices of inputs like wages, taxes, imports and raw materials, or other influential factors such as natural disasters, depletion of natural resources, government regulation, change in exchange rates etc., may push the costs of production higher and weaken the supply of goods as it becomes more expensive now to make the same volume as they were before the surge in production costs. While the demand for these goods remain consistent, the shortage in supply causes a rise in the overall price level. In other words, inflation happens when costs increase independently of aggregate demand. This type of inflation is referred as Cost-Push Inflation, another term associated with Keynesian economics.

    In 2011, the earthquake and tsunami disaster caused inflation to go up temporarily in deflation-ridden Japan.

    As the push for higher federal minimum wages has gained momentum in U.S. these days, the naysayers often cite references to cost-push inflation — they argue that if the base wages are raised, the manufacturers may feel obligated to pass these increases onto consumers in the form of higher prices.

  3. Over expansion or increase in the money supply in the form of cash and credit may create inflation. If a country prints too much money, the value of the money decreases proportional to the amount of money that was printed. Despite no changes to the aggregate demand or supply, having too much money chasing too few goods can cause the prices of just about everything to increase. If too much money is printed, it becomes worthless to the point where objects are exchanged for goods in place of paper money (bartering).

    zimbabwe inflation

    In year 2000, Zimbabwean Government engaged in money creation activity to fund the Congo war. Coupled with the fact that the money was created with nothing to back it up to give it a value, droughts and private farm confiscation by the government further weakened the supply of food and other locally produced goods. Eventually people holding the Zimbabwean dollar (symbol: Z$) lost confidence in its ability to retain its value, and the series of events that followed led to prolonged hyperinflation between years 2004 and 2009, which ultimately ended with the demise of the Zimbabwean dollar in April 2009. The peak month of hyperinflation occurred in mid-November 2008 with a rate estimated at 79.6 billion percent per month.

    Hyperinflation is not purely a monetary phenomenon — massive supply shock often coupled with external debt denominated in a foreign currency may create a situation involving social unrest that give rise to hyperinflation. A supply shock is an event that suddenly changes the price of a commodity or service mostly due to wars or natural disasters. The collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Yugoslavia, and the Soviet Union all led to the emergence of hyperinflation.

Source: various including investopedia, wikipedia, economicshelp.org, James Montier’s writings

(To be continued ..)

US Treasury Bond Yields

Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related — rising bond prices means lower yields, and falling bond prices imply higher yields.

When sold initially at auction by the US Treasury department, treasury notes or bonds will have a fixed face value and fixed interest rate. In the context of treasury bonds, the interest rate is usually referred as coupon rate, coupon percent rate or simply coupon.

Similar to stocks, bonds are resold on the open market or secondary market. Demand for those treasury bonds may push the price higher and the yield lower. The reason for the lower yield being upon maturity, treasury pays back just the face value along with the pre-determined interest rate. The current yield for any treasury bond can can be calculated as shown below.

                   Actual Annual Interest
   Current yield = ---------------------- * 100
                    Current Market Value

For example, if a treasury bond with a face value of $100 and an interest rate 3% was sold at a premium price for $101 due to demand, the current yield will be (3/101) * 100 = 2.97%

Implication of Treasury Yields:

Listed below are some high-level implications of the rising or falling treasury yields.

Rise in treasury yields may:

  • push the interest rate upwards on fixed-length mortages and loans with similar lengths. In other words, rise in treasury yields hurt borrowers by driving up the borrowing costs making longer-term loans such as housing, car loans less affordable. On the other hand, savers benefit by the rise in interest rates.

  • pose a threat to Governments with huge national debt by increasing the interest payments on that debt.

  • increase the value of the world’s reserve currency — the US dollar as of today, which could attract foreign investment. As the returns on US dollar increase, the demand for US dollar grows worldwide.

  • negatively impact stock markets as investors may move out of those risky assets to less risky assets such as bonds

  • negatively impact precious metals such as Gold. The general theory is that since the returns on precious metals mainly depend on the demand for those metals, rise in bond yields and a subsequent strengthned US dollar make investing in precious metals less attractive.

Drop in treasury yields usually will have inverse effect of the rise in treasury yields. For example, drop in treasury yields may lead to decreased interest rates, which in turn may encourage borrowing and the resulting cash flow can result in real estate boom on the positive side, and can cause the inflation to go up on the negative side. Inflation is the rise in the prices of goods and services over time. Rise in interest rates in a inflation ridden nation may make things worse.

Note that the impact can be felt when there is a sudden and noticeable movement in yields in either direction. Once stabilized, people may get used to the new normal, and some of the things may go back to the way there were. For example, sudden upward surge in treasury yields may drive investors away from Gold – but once the knee-jerk reaction subsides, investors may return and continue trading Gold. After all, Gold is a precious metal with lots of demand worldwide.

Source: various including Investopedia

Interesting blogs, websites


  1. Zero Hedge
  2. Nanex twitter feed (interesting & scary)
  3. David Stockman’s Contra Conter
  4. Evil Speculator
  5. Economic Policy Journal
  6. Miles Franklin’s Blog
  7. Harry S. Dent Jr.’s Blog
  8. Talk Markets (Syndication)
  9. Global Slant
  10. John Crudele’s column (New York Post)
  11. 10 year treasury note yields
  12. Financial Visualizations (finviz)
  13. Gareth & Nick’s Rant & Rave blog (10m intra-day analysis video)
  14. Lance Robert’s blog (good dose of daily analysis)
  15. Bonner & Partners
  16. Spreadbet Magazine (Gold bugs, UK based blog)
  17. Forex Trade strategy
  18. The Economic Collapse
  19. Wall Street on Parade
  20. The Burning Platform
  21. Contemporary trading mysteries explained
  22. Ron Paul Institute Featured Articles
  23. Business Insider (click baiting)


  1. Humble Student of the Markets
  2. TraderFeed
  3. The Night Own Trader
  4. Jesse’s Cafe Americain
  5. All Star Charts
  6. Trade Followers


  1. Mauldin Economics (co-author of “Code Red”)
  2. Grant Williams’ Things that make you go hmmm … articles
  3. Profit Confidential
  4. John Hussman’s Commentary
  5. Clusterfu*k Nation
  6. Cyniconomics
  7. Mises Daily
  8. ZEAL speculation & investment
  9. Ron Paul’s weekly column : Texas Straight Talk
  10. Ron Paul’s Daily Reckoning
  11. World’s Opinion (syndicate)
  12. Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
  13. Graham Summer’s Gains Pains & Capital (reduced frequency, decreased quality)
  14. Paul Krugman’s blog (Keynesian, boring as hell)
  15. Karl Denninger’s blog
  16. A lightning war for Liberty (focus on BitCoin)
  17. Pragmatic Capitalism (QE believer, flip-flopper)


  1. Sovereign Man
  2. Of Two Minds
  3. Acting Man
  4. Ron Paul MD
  5. My Budget 360
  6. Market Oracle (UK based)
  7. Daily Reckoning
  8. Daily Bell
  9. 321 Gold
  10. Alt-Market
  11. Marc to Market
  12. Joseph Stuber’s Instablog


  1. Fed Monetizing US Government Debt
  2. Investing concepts (videos)
  3. Hidden secrets of Money
  4. Understanding QE
  5. Can the Fed become insolvent?
  6. Variety of interesting posts
  7. Jesse Livermore’s famous quotes
  8. James Montier’s resources (white paper links)


  1. Dollar Collapse
  2. Investment Contrarians
  3. BitCoin Real Time
  4. bar chart [.com]
  5. XTF : Trending ETFs
  6. VIX Term Structure (Contango)
  7. CBOE VIX futures
  8. Options Chain
  9. To the Tick
  10. Daily Gains Letter

Visualizing Bob Farrell’s 10 Investing Rules

An interesting and relevant read, especially at this point in time where markets react indifferently to all events alike — good or bad — creating a false impression, This Time is Different.

VIX Contango

Probably help those who trade VIX futures using ETNs such as VXX, TVIX, UVXY, XIV (inverse VIX), ..

Reference: Contango